X Class Solar Flare – Earth Facing

Updated: 10th September 2014 X Flare

Another X class solar flare.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 103
Issue Time: 2014 Sep 10 1827 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2014 Sep 10 1721 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Sep 10 1745 UTC
End Time: 2014 Sep 10 1820 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.6
Optical Class: 2b
Location: N15E09
NOAA Scale: R3 – Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio – Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 960
Issue Time: 2014 Sep 10 1814 UTC
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Sep 10 1727 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 3750 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

The estimated speed is enormous and there’s already a magnetic storm watch up for Friday due to a flare/cme yesterday – today’s is much stronger. Awaiting NASA/NOAA preliminary analysis…

Original Post

No Don’t Panic but this is another sign the Sun is acting more like it should do at Solar Max.

UPDATE: SEVERE MAGNETIC STORM PREDICTED!

X1.2 Flare

X1.2 Flare

Xray_1m

As Sunspot Groups 1943/1944 are almost directly Earth facing any associated CME will likely be Earth directed. No it won’t fry the grids but we might have some Aurora activity in a couple of days.

EDIT: Updated with Imagery from STEREO Ahead (on the opposite side of the Sun from the Earth).

Stereo Ahead Cor(ona) 2

STEREO Ahead Cor(ona) 2

Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt
Issued: 2014 Jan 08 1510 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Forecast…

severe (G3-strong) storm levels are expected early on day two (09 Jan) in response to the arrival of the 07 Jan CME. Day three (10 Jan) is likely to start out at major (G2-moderate) to severe (G3-strong) storm levels, decreasing to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) by midday before returning to unsettled conditions as CME effects begin to subside.

Stay Tuned and keep up to latest info at http://www.solarham.net

205 thoughts on “X Class Solar Flare – Earth Facing

  1. Ben,

    Some people on the web just make fantastic claims. It’s not lack of data or lack of analysis it is just fantastic claims that don’t stand up. Here’s what happened when the USGS looked for a connection.

    http://www.universetoday.com/101404/the-sun-doesnt-cause-earthquakes/

    The Sun Doesn’t Cause Earthquakes

    If that title seems like an obvious statement to you, it’s ok… it seems pretty obvious to me too. But there are those who have been suggesting — for quite some time, actually — that earthquakes can be triggered or strengthened by solar activity; that, in fact, exceptionally powerful solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other outpourings from our home star can cause the planet’s crust to shift, shake, and shudder.

    Except that that’s simply not true — at least, not according to a recent study by researchers from the USGS.

    Researchers Dr. Jeffrey Love from the United States Geological Survey and Dr. Jeremy Thomas from Northwest Research Associates compared historical data of solar activity with earthquake occurrences around the world and found no definitive correlations… nothing to suggest that one directly influenced the other.

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50211/abstract

    [1] We examine the claim that solar-terrestrial interaction, as measured by sunspots, solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic activity, might play a role in triggering earthquakes. We count the number of earthquakes having magnitudes that exceed chosen thresholds in calendar years, months, and days, and we order these counts by the corresponding rank of annual, monthly, and daily averages of the solar-terrestrial variables. We measure the statistical significance of the difference between the earthquake-number distributions below and above the median of the solar-terrestrial averages by χ2 and Student’s t tests. Across a range of earthquake magnitude thresholds, we find no consistent and statistically significant distributional differences. We also introduce time lags between the solar-terrestrial variables and the number of earthquakes, but again no statistically significant distributional difference is found. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of no solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes.

    You might, or might not, be interested in this as well.

    Recently retired from NASA, top Solar Physicist Dr Keith Strong debunks SuspiciousObservers

    http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLlASxYaKskYjXH68akiL9eJld6MzuUw69

  2. AA; Every time I start to think about starting a blog, I think of you. 🙂

    Constant monitoring and tweaking is your forte’ and I am technically deficient. 🙂

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