X Class Solar Flare – Earth Facing

Updated: 10th September 2014 X Flare

Another X class solar flare.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 103
Issue Time: 2014 Sep 10 1827 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2014 Sep 10 1721 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Sep 10 1745 UTC
End Time: 2014 Sep 10 1820 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.6
Optical Class: 2b
Location: N15E09
NOAA Scale: R3 – Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio – Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 960
Issue Time: 2014 Sep 10 1814 UTC
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Sep 10 1727 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 3750 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

The estimated speed is enormous and there’s already a magnetic storm watch up for Friday due to a flare/cme yesterday – today’s is much stronger. Awaiting NASA/NOAA preliminary analysis…

Original Post

No Don’t Panic but this is another sign the Sun is acting more like it should do at Solar Max.

UPDATE: SEVERE MAGNETIC STORM PREDICTED!

X1.2 Flare

X1.2 Flare

Xray_1m

As Sunspot Groups 1943/1944 are almost directly Earth facing any associated CME will likely be Earth directed. No it won’t fry the grids but we might have some Aurora activity in a couple of days.

EDIT: Updated with Imagery from STEREO Ahead (on the opposite side of the Sun from the Earth).

Stereo Ahead Cor(ona) 2

STEREO Ahead Cor(ona) 2

Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt
Issued: 2014 Jan 08 1510 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Forecast…

severe (G3-strong) storm levels are expected early on day two (09 Jan) in response to the arrival of the 07 Jan CME. Day three (10 Jan) is likely to start out at major (G2-moderate) to severe (G3-strong) storm levels, decreasing to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) by midday before returning to unsettled conditions as CME effects begin to subside.

Stay Tuned and keep up to latest info at http://www.solarham.net

205 thoughts on “X Class Solar Flare – Earth Facing

  1. Alaskan salmon, Mary. I don’t eat fish from Pacific just as a precaution. I am certain our betters are keeping close watch on the Public Good.

  2. Wise thinking Ben.

    Here’s some rear Official Chinese Humour Re their Moon Rover –

    “The report from Xinhua, written as if it sent by the rover itself, said the problems could prove insoluble.

    “Masters are working round the clock. In spite of that, I know I might not be able to make it through this lunar night,” the “report” from Jade Rabbit said.

    “If this journey is to be suspended ahead of schedule, I am not fearful. No matter whether I can be fixed or not, I believe I have left masters much valuable information and experience.”

    The authorities reported on Saturday the rover had experienced a “mechanical control abnormality” and scientists were trying to fix it.

    http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1414534/jade-rabbit-moon-rover-may-be-beyond-repair-state-media-hints

  3. Brown dwarf weather revealed

    Astronomers have presented the first detailed study of the atmospheric features – the extraterrestrial weather patterns – of a brown dwarf

    The results are published in the January 30, 2014 issue of the journal Nature and in Astrophysical Journal Letters.

    Studies of the brown dwarf system Luhman 16 – a mere 6.5 light-years away from the Sun, has resulted in the first surface map of a brown dwarf and measurements of the objects’ atmospheres at different depths.

    http://earthsky.org/science-wire/brown-dwarf-weather-revealed-by-surface-mapping

  4. To take a Phrase from the Mad Irish man from Braveheart ( stephen) …..

    I was talking to The Almighty, and he assure’s me that i will win the Euromillions this year…. Hold On…. “Alright Father….I’ll tell them”…. the Almighty say’s i’ve to treat everyone at Squonk’s joint… to the space jump in the video below …. And That means YOU TOO MARY…… 🙂

    bit of Adds in there, but jump starts about 2mins in

    http://www.universetoday.com/108837/this-is-what-it-looks-like-to-freefall-from-space/

  5. LOL What happens if you don’t like heights?? 🙂

    When my 3 brothers and I were children, we lived in the flat above our father’s shop. We used to climb a vertical metal ladder, which was fixed to the wall, to the flat roof above where we played. We could look down on the street below from a small parapet. I could no more do that now that fly to the moon.

  6. BrianFujisan, excellent video; thanks. Wow! What a thing to do! “Sometimes you have to be up really high to understand how small you are. I’m going home now”.

  7. Mary, Lol
    … amazing how we grow INTO fears… i remember being on The Aonach Eagach Ridge in GlenCoe ( the most difficult horizontal ‘scrambling’ ridge in mainland Scotland )…i was with a brother-in-law… he was terrified…and with good reason – it’s 3 feet wide in places, and 3,127 feet down on each side. i was quite enjoying myself…Some eejit had his girl, or wife up there, and she was so scared i was placing her foot on safe ground for her …she should never have been up there…

    Got my wee Grand daughter for the night, Which reminds me again how we grow Into fear…i had her every weekend when she was in Nappies ( daipers in case Ben wonders Lol ) soon as she could walk she was away out into the darkest reaches of my garden…with her torch…fearless …but as she got a little older, she was more fearful of the dark… she is 8 years now…And i’ve got her half trained in Jui jitsu 🙂

    Clark
    wouldn’t that be amazing…. if that were me i’d have them freaked out…by staying there just looking out, and down, and up…for hours…must have been scary when he lost control for some seconds…Gotta Love that last sentence before he stepped off.

    AA…thanks for putting Video up 🙂

  8. You’re a lad Brian. Your posts always make me smile and/or laugh. Bless your little granddaughter. I reckon she is fortunate to have you as her Granddad.

    I have been watching Made in Dagenham about the group of women machinists who stood together and took Ford on for equal pay and eventually won. Brilliant. Made by BBC Films – can you see them doing anything about such a revolutionary subject now? Does BBC Films as such even still exist?
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_Dagenham

  9. Brian,

    There’s a G2 (moderate storm) watch in effect with possible brief G3 (major storm). If we get that there might be a chance for Aurora hunters in Scotland however every recent CME impact has underperformed so we might see absolutely nothing at all.

    http://solarham.net/wwv.htm

    :Product: Forecast Discussion
    :Issued: 2014 Feb 15 0030 UTC
    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

    The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (15 Feb) due to effects from the 11 and 12 Feb CMEs. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day two (16 Feb) followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 17 Feb as CME effects subside.

  10. Weak CME impact so far and Kp index hasn’t got above 3 yet. Second impact still expected though but if it is as weak as the first then no chance of a light show.

    Still need to wait and see just in case.

  11. UPDATE: Geomagnetic storming increasing.

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

    Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
    Serial Number: 883
    Issue Time: 2014 Feb 15 2224 UTC

    WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
    Valid From: 2014 Feb 15 2223 UTC
    Valid To: 2014 Feb 16 0300 UTC
    Warning Condition: Onset
    NOAA Scale: G1 – Minor
    Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
    Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
    Spacecraft – Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
    Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

  12. Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
    Serial Number: 735
    Issue Time: 2014 Feb 16 0003 UTC
    ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
    Threshold Reached: 2014 Feb 15 2359 UTC

    And later preliminary K index 6 just recorded in Sweden moments ago. Now is the time to look North.

  13. Cheers for the Updates Squonk….

    Took myself out again last night I’m about 55% North… got some nice fotos but alas…not of auroa… effin rain came on …couple of moonrise shots over the clyde…

    went a long drive for dark skies on saturday…it was promising for a while.. Good to see the Atlantic again though…Next time leave the Wumin behind Lol…. Thanks for the updates

  14. We actually had an unexpected Kp index of 6 last night. That could have been enough for Aurora of parts of Scotland. Fallen back now so probably nothing after dark tonight but I’ll post any updates if that changes.

    Now back to asteroids going missing in a moment.

  15. How Nuclear Bombs Could Save Earth from Killer Asteroids

    http://www.space.com/24696-asteroid-strike-nuclear-bombs.html

    The most destructive weapon humanity has ever developed could help our species avoid going the way of the dinosaurs.

    Pretty much any asteroid that poses a threat to Earth can be blasted out of the heavens using a nuclear bomb, even with warning times of a week or less, say a team of scientists who have been developing the idea.

    “We have the solution, using our baseline concept, to be able to mitigate the asteroid-impact threat, with any range of warning,” Bong Wie, of Iowa State University, said Feb. 6 at the 2014 NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) meeting at Stanford University.

    [Video: Nuclear Bomb Takes Out Asteroid]

    [Tried embedding the video but the embed code provided isn’t working – so just visit the Main article link]. Update: Managed to get embed code working but browsers may complain about unencrypted Flash content on an encrypted page and block it by default. It is okay to over-ride that for this page. It just means there isn’t an encrypted version of the video available for me to embed]

  16. Gently moving the asteroid off course using nukes seems more effective than trying to destroy. Fragments resulting from unknown structural geology could still impact and would be difficult to avoid.

  17. Ben,

    Yes gently moving an asteroid a long time in advance is the best way. But the approach I linked is when you cannot do that – either because it is spotted too late or the orbit prevents you from getting a nuke there in time before it is closing in on Earth. The researchers claim you could nuke it up to quite close before impact. If you nuked it a month before impact they estimate that only 0.1% would hit Earth. That would likely turn a disastrous (but not world ending) impact, such as the potential one I wondered about, into nothing but some spectacular fireballs which burn up in the atmosphere.

    The difference between this approach and previous nuke-it approaches is that they first penetrate into the asteroid and then detonate down inside immediately after. A supercomputer was used to perform the simulations.

  18. Considering the fact that they are better at observing distant objects than those close by (at which time they seem to disappear 🙂 ) a bunkerbuster would be the best bad idea at a moments notice.

  19. Ben

    yes, but…in Pale Blue Dot, Carl Sagan expressed concerns about deflection technology, that any method capable of deflecting Asteroids away from Earth …could also be abused to divert non-threatening bodies toward the planet.

    “If we’re not careful, many nations may have these capabilities in the next few decades. What kind of world will we then have made?” – Sagan

    But i read elsewhere that Sagan thought we really need to do something, about bouth space junk, and NEO’s… i’ll try to dig that piece up

    Video works ok AA…
    Dont Blow them up Bad idea

  20. We’ll have to wait and see if anyone can reacquire either of the two objects or come up with some explanation.

    Meanwhile I’ve got another slight mystery (well NOAA/NASA have one)

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/forecast_discussion.txt

    The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained enhanced during the period and reached a peak of 2 pfu at 19/1515 UTC followed by a gradual decrease. There was no obvious source for this proton flux enhancement.

    The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for most of Feb 20 as CME effects continue to subside. Field activity is expected to increase to active levels, with a chance for minor storm (G1 – Minor), late on Feb 20 continuing into Feb 21 due to an expected CME passage. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels late on Feb 21 as CME effects subside. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to persist on Feb 22.

    Low energy protons are elevated and still rising right now normally indicating the approach of an incoming CME.

  21. Squonk:

    We’ll have to wait and see…

    But surely they’d be tracking it all the way in. Could they lose their lock on it? OK, the angle changes faster the closer it gets which would present an increasing challenge for higher magnification instruments, but the object appears brighter and bigger in compensation, enabling it to be picked up on smaller and more numerous instruments. It seems very odd.

  22. Clark,

    The two asteroids weren’t big enough to be seen unless they were relatively close to Earth. In the case of the one a few days ago it was last seen in 2000. However it did have 9 days worth of orbit observations at the time so its orbit was known (or thought to be known) reasonably well. This was the closest approach since 2000 and it should have been twice as close to the Earth on this pass as it was in 2000.

  23. Ahh Alcanon…

    That’s almost a mystery solved… Glory be.. don’t get much of that in Sky Sciences…

    Though i wondered Where the rest of it was…. = what megatons did they use ffk

    Thanks for update… Effin cloud cover ..three days and MILES of travel.

  24. Ait it Just Typical…. Clear skies just about everywhere…. except to the North… Some good Aurora shots from further North.

    I see one of my fav asteroids is passing in the next few days, Pallas, there’s a good Scottish prog Rock band Called Pallas, great band…. almost as old as the rock too Lol…

    Got the Australian Pink Floyd Gig tomorrow in the new Hydro….Cosmic sounds indeedio 🙂

  25. AA…First off did i miss a post…have you lost a friend…. had a shifty through the other thread ??

    and i Know what you mean about hibernating some months… it drives me crazy…like ALL of the North are getting amazing Auroa shots the last 8/ 10 hours BUT HERE…. Fk…. there was something btw about Blakes seven that Loved…much better than Dr who…Much Better…Loved that Star ship

    did’nt get a good sleep the last couple of nights so had a nap about 9.pm ..bad idea …

    Thanks for the Sentinel vid…i had that L.p too… but gave it to someone, and that was the last i seen off it….i also heard they may be touring in the summer…

    well anyway Squonkie Boy… i took a couple of wee videos from the Ausie floyd gig for ya…. absolutely stunning light show effects….a wee bit less quality from my wee Nikon camera though……check it oot –

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CccU1TXGR9k

  26. Possible Aurora watch for tonight.

    The Sun produced an X4.9 flare a couple of days ago. It was not directly Earth facing but a glancing blow is predicted. It’s running late on predicted arrival time but ACE spacecraft low energy proton count and solar wind density both appear to now indicate an approaching CME.

    Currently only minor storming is expected but there might be a brief period of greater storm intensity.

  27. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26378027

    Northern Lights illuminate the UK

    The Aurora Borealis – better known as the Northern Lights – has been giving rare and spectacular displays over parts of the UK, from the north of Scotland to as far south as Essex and Gloucestershire.

    The lights have also been clearly visible in places such as Orkney, Norfolk, and south Wales.

  28. It’s currently cloudy towards the north here, but I’m going over to oil lamps and turning my monitor off, and waiting a bit to see if the cloud is clearing or not…

    Thanks AlcAnon.

    Also, I e-mailed you. Did it arrive?

  29. I would love to see the northern lights. No chance from here of course. I can hardly see the stars for light pollution. I even have an old but fairly powerful telescope that stays locked up in a shed because of the pollution. What a waste.

    This year is good for the northern lights isn’t it? Anyone know what would be the chances of seeing the lights if I spent August in the Orkneys?

  30. “This year is good for the northern lights isn’t it?”

    Being able to see the northern lights as far south as Essex and Gloucestershire isn’t really all that good because it means the earth is being bombarded with unusually high levels of solar radiation.

  31. Clark, yes got your email.

    Roughly during March and September the Earth’s magnetic field is in its best alignment with that of the Sun’s. The Earth is both in the Sun’s rotational plane and the Earth’s equator is pointed towards the Sun (not exactly at the equinox though because magnetic North and geographic North are not in the same place).

    So any CME impact at this time of year has an enhanced effect on the magnetosphere. So Phil, the later in August the better. Also you need darkness of course so again late August rather than early August.

    The sunspot group that produced the X4.9 flare is now in a much better geo-effective position. If it lets off a big flare in the next few days there will be a very good chance of another Aurora display. I’ll keep watching.

  32. I also have the chance for the last two weeks of October in Orkney. I would largely be going to see the aurora. Do you know how I might begin to assess the chances of seeing it?

  33. Phil,

    Keep a check on http://solarham.net . All the information you could possibly want is on that page or linked from there.

    You can just read the textual summaries and predictions or look at K-index (6 or above is especially good). You can also look at the near real time Aurora displays as seen by orbiting satellites.

    For a quick summary of current active space weather you can go straight to http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html That page auto-refreshes with current conditions as well as forecasts for magnetic storming. Click on a coloured bar for more info. Currently it shows all magnetic storm watches about to expire.

    A twitter search for aurora will quickly tell you if a light show is really being widely seen.

  34. Squonk, Thanks for the info. I was actually wondering how to get some idea if it really might be worth going all the way to the Orkneys for the last two weeks of October to see the northern lights.

    AlcAnon, you are Squonk aren’t you? I hope I’m not being rudely confused. Why the two names?

  35. Phil,

    We are still at solar max. Although it is a fairly weak solar max it is not totally anaemic as we’ve just seen. However it is not possible to predict whether August or October will have more Earth directed CMEs.

    I’d go for October because there are more hours of darkness. But that’s playing the percentages. There could be a huge display in August and nothing in October.

    Yes I am Squonk If I’m logged in to WordPress I’m Squonk (site Admin). If not logged in I’m AlcAnon. The (Gr)Avatar is the same in both cases.

  36. Alcanon….

    I’m sick n sad…. the fotos coming in all over the place are Stunning from last night… think i missed the whole thing after being at Jui jitsu….then around 12;30 i thought i could see a glow …15 mins to clear the car of frost… went up the Back roads about 1;am…but bugger all doing… got one nice shot of Jupiter, near the Twins of Gemini, and Capella…. Slippin n sliding frozen Black roads…

    .Did you see any lights yourself ?

    Thanks for you’re updates.

    here is one of my fav NLC shots For ya –

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/12804317635/

  37. Hi Ben….

    No haven’t seen it yet…sounds super kool though…It was in the u.s First ….Sunday past ( 9th )

    It Premier’s over here on –
    March 16, 7PM – apparently on – Fox, Sky1, Nat Geo, Nat Geo Wild

    Here is a wee review For ya….

    The perspective in the episode continually pans out for a broader and broader perspective in which our world is a smaller and smaller speck.

    Skimming over Venus, we see the “runaway greenhouse effect has turned it into a kind of hell,” says Tyson. Understanding this effect on Venus was one of Sagan’s major contributions to science. Jupiter’s red spot, a hurricane three times the size of Earth, provides the first comparison by which we see our planet’s size diminishing in the ever-expanding view.

    Beyond Voyager 1—the spacecraft that has traveled farther than any other launched from Earth—and beyond the cloud of comets that encircles our solar system, we enter “the deeper waters of this vast cosmic ocean.”

    ‘Feeling a Little Small’
    The bubble theory has its place in this episode. The screen pans out to show our universe as a bubble surrounded by many other bubbles—so many, in the end, that each universe is like a droplet of water in a massive, rushing waterfall.

    “Feeling a little small?” asks Tyson. “We may just be little guys living on a speck of dust afloat in a staggering immensity.”

    Ben the fuller Review can be found @

    http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/553334-cosmos-a-spacetime-odyssey-synopsis-review-of-episode-1-standing-up-in-the-milky-way/?photo=2

  38. You may well have seen this before, but I like posting it anyway; the Flash animation at the top of the page, “The Scale of the Universe”:

    http://scaleofuniverse.com/

    Down at the small end; about ten orders of magnitude, from {ten to the minus twenty-four} metre to {ten to minus thirty-five} metre; we know of absolutely nothing at these scales. I rather like “lengths shorter than this are not confirmed” at around {ten to the minus sixteen} m. Not just any teapot; Russell’s Teapot is worth looking up. For astronomical bodies, note that Ganymede (which you can see orbiting Jupiter through 8×50 binoculars) and Titan, the largest moons in our solar system, are only a little smaller than Mars, and the star Sirius B is smaller than Neptune. Altair (funny shape; spinning fast?), Vega and the considerably larger Deneb are the three bright stars constituting the prominent “Summer Triangle”. Vega looks brightest to us at about 25 light-years distance, but Deneb is almost as bright though it’s somewhere between 1500 and 2800 light-years away. All the red giants from La Superba upwards are bigger than Earth’s orbit around Sol. The scale of human exploration is a bit bigger, with Voyager being about one light-day distant, though the next nearest star is over four light years away. Note the Andromeda galaxy at about {ten to the twenty-one} metre; at over two million light years, this is the most distant thing you can see with unaided human vision. It and our Milky Way galaxy are falling into each other, with “collision” (they won’t exactly collide as they are both mostly empty space) occurring in less than four billion years, which is a bit less than the age of our solar system, and considerably before our Sun is expected to turn into a red giant. We still have several orders of magnitude to go before we reach the furthest things ever observed, in the Hubble Deep Field; look at all those galaxies:

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5f/HubbleDeepField.800px.jpg

  39. “Papers published so far on the G2 cloud have failed to discuss the possibility that an embedded star might carry with it a companion. And yet this is the most important aspect to consider in this upcoming cloud-core encounter, because tidal stripping of a companion star and entrainment into the Galactic core would almost certainly trigger a core explosion with consequent prompt superwave impact on our solar system.”

    http://etheric.com/g2-cloud-likely-contain-star-increased-chance-core-explosion/

  40. Ben,

    Paul LaViolette is not someone I take seriously. He’s just out to make money.

    This might be interesting though

    http://spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=42751

    March 17th Press Conference on Major Discovery at Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

    The Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA) will host a press conference at 12:00 noon EDT (16:00 UTC) on Monday, March 17th, to announce a major discovery.

    Video of the press conference will be streamed live beginning at 11:55 a.m. EDT from the link at http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/news/news_conferences.html

  41. What do you make of the G2 cloud? If a star is contained with a companion, is a superwave feasible?

  42. The Harvard-Smithsonian announcement on Monday might have something to do with the G2 cloud. Have to wait and see.

    If the companion star was orbiting as far from the main star as LaViolette is suggesting I would think it would have been spotted by now outside the main gas cloud and would be known about. But that’s just my guess. I haven’t followed the G2 encounter as close as I would have liked to.

  43. Clark .. yes i came across the scale of the univers, for the first time, only about 3 weeks ago…. brilliant aint it i love it…. i spent Quite some time on there.

    There’s a Carl Sagan Quote… about the infinitely Small….Looking dowards as well as up –

    ” There seems to be an immense cloud of extremely hot hydrogen glowing in x-rays between some galaxies.
    Now, if this amount of intergalactic matter were typical of all clusters of galaxies then there may be just enough matter to close the cosmos and to trap us forever in an oscillating universe.
    If the cosmos is closed there’s a strange, haunting, evocative possibility one of the most exquisite conjectures in science or religion.
    It’s entirely undemonstrated it may never be proved, but it’s stirring.
    Our entire universe, to the farthest galaxy, we are told is no more than a closed electron in a far grander universe we can never see.
    That universe is only an elementary particle in another still greater universe and so on forever.
    Also, every electron in our universe, it is claimed is an entire miniature cosmos containing galaxies and stars and life and electrons.
    Every one of those electrons contains a still smaller universe an infinite regression up and down.”

    Hi Ben… i must look into that G2 cloud stuff….. And to all space dudes … i caught Some of this last night…. tense viewing at times –

    Astronauts: Houston We Have a Problem –

    http://www.channel4.com/programmes/live-from-space/4od#3662439

  44. AA; An elementary question, I think.

    Gamma rays travel at light speed.

    What kind of advance warning would we have should a superwave occur? the center of our galaxy is about 60k light years away, but as I understand, we will be seeing it as we’re feeling it, so shall we just have a drink?

  45. check out this emotional moment…when the Daddy of Inflation Theory ( Professor Andrei Linde ) – gets the news about the new evidence that his theory is true.

    What a moment that must have been as reward for Like 30 years, a lifetimes work…

    Stanford Professor Andrei Linde celebrates physics breakthrough –

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlfIVEy_YOA

  46. Hahaha…Ben …. as a wee Scottish Saying goes – ” What you Like”

    Had a peek and i see where you are going with that…i felt compelled to add … something in aid of yir mission… good to see some of the Al Hilli people turning up too….

    And talkin of Al Hilli thread…i felt compelled to comment there to Congratulate that crowd on 100 pages Lol… Amazing stuff methinks…

    Good luck on ze Block Buster … 🙂

  47. Brian; Thanks for helping out. 🙂 but Craig has posted another MH 370 thread which he promptly defused with two more posts.

  48. Very slight chance of an Auroral display tonight from a glancing CME impact.

    Official forecast isn’t encouraging though.

    .Forecast…
    The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels (Below G1-Minor) by late in day 1 to early on day 2 (25-26 Mar) with the arrival of a glancing blow from the 23 Mar CME combined with weak CH HSS influence. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected by day 3 (27Mar).

    If chances seem to be increasing I’ll try and post an update.

  49. Here it comes

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html

    Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
    Serial Number: 2238
    Issue Time: 2014 Mar 25 1943 UTC
    WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
    Valid From: 2014 Mar 25 2030 UTC
    Valid To: 2014 Mar 26 0700 UTC
    Warning Condition: Onset
    Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
    Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
    Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

    Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
    Serial Number: 150
    Issue Time: 2014 Mar 25 1936 UTC
    WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
    Valid From: 2014 Mar 25 2010 UTC
    Valid To: 2014 Mar 25 2040 UTC
    IP Shock Passage Observed: 2014 Mar 25 1925 UTC

  50. Are you at or above 65%… AA… I’m at 55%… weather was dazzling skies on Sunday night ..but it’s Monsoon tonight.. Just effin Typical… too far North though for me.

    Happy hunting..and cheers for info… 🙂

  51. So far as I know, no one has ever been known to have been hit by a meteor. One crashed through a roof into an occupied bedroom. Another hit the boot of a car. If I remember rightly, a dog was struck and killed by a meteor – odd, unlikely things seem to happen to dogs.

  52. Ahh Poor wee Beasts Clark……. amazing first time ever footage Eh…i keep hoping to see one land a few yards away from me on white Hebridean beach, or hard packed ice on the hills …cos i see some rocks, Martian ones among others, are worth a wee fortune…But would i Part with it… Can ££££’s Buy it… ?? and on a grander scale I’d love to see a football sized rock Plunge into Loch Lomond during one of our wee beach fires at camp… at a safe distance out of course… 😉

    Ben you sound like Scotsman at times… i heard that old Phrase myself on naughty occasion Lol A Wee Skelp Ahh Memories

  53. Oh I love dogs; most of them are so funny. It’s just a dog sort of thing to do, walking into the path of a meteor. They only live a decade or two and they take outrageous risks with apparent abandon. Mine had an amazing ability to escape locked houses, and an unfortunate belief that if he wandered into the path moving traffic with a hopeful look on his face, someone would stop and be his friend or give him a sandwich or something. I spent years ensuring that he didn’t try his luck. Couldn’t leave him unattended except at home, he’d get out every time.

    So a dog lives like that, risking its life in utter innocence, and then gets killed by a rock from the sky! YCNMIU. But hey, I’ll bet anything that dog became a posthumous local hero; they’ll still remember in a hundred years.

  54. Alcanon…. and Any Science Fiction reader’s …

    I recently finished reading Bill Napier’s ‘ Revelation ‘ super cool to read an action Novel with oor cities and My motorway… i thought it would be a slightly better read though…

    Anyone read His ( Napier’s ) Nemesis – about Asteroid deflection n stuff

    think i’ll have to give it a try.

  55. Humour from SolarHam

    http://solarham.net/

    Spotless

    Good morning. Below is an updated image of the visible solar disk on Wednesday. Okay, Technically this is a picture of an orange, but our visible disk looks very similar today. Region 2113 faded away leaving the Earth facing side of the sun spotless for the first time since August 14, 2011. This will be made official later today just as long as 2113 remains a spotless plage. We will likely see more periods of active sunspots during the next year or so, but a gradual downward turn in overall activity is inevitable. Solar activity should continue at very low levels today. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the past day. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.

    Visible Solar Disk (Wednesday) – SDO/HMI

  56. Another X class solar flare.

    Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
    Serial Number: 103
    Issue Time: 2014 Sep 10 1827 UTC
    SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
    Begin Time: 2014 Sep 10 1721 UTC
    Maximum Time: 2014 Sep 10 1745 UTC
    End Time: 2014 Sep 10 1820 UTC
    X-ray Class: X1.6
    Optical Class: 2b
    Location: N15E09
    NOAA Scale: R3 – Strong
    Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
    Radio – Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

    Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
    Serial Number: 960
    Issue Time: 2014 Sep 10 1814 UTC
    ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
    Begin Time: 2014 Sep 10 1727 UTC
    Estimated Velocity: 3750 km/s
    Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpBUhlhXMDo

    The estimated speed is enormous and there’s already a magnetic storm watch up for Friday due to a flare/cme yesterday – today’s is much stronger. Awaiting NASA/NOAA preliminary analysis…

  57. Ben,

    Official update in under 90 mins time. Based on automatic real-time data this is pretty big. The initial estimated speed is about as high as you can possibly get. However that data is automatic and can get it wrong. We’ll see what the 00:30 GMT update says soon enough.

  58. Official Forecast says “haven’t a clue”

    http://solarham.net/wwv.htm

    :Product: Forecast Discussion
    :Issued: 2014 Sep 11 0030 UTC
    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    #
    Solar Activity

    .24 hr Summary…
    Solar activity was high. The largest solar event of the period was an
    X1/2b flare (R3/Strong) at 10/1745 UTC from Region 2158 (N15W00, Dkc/beta-gamma) with associated Type II (3,750 km/s estimated velocity) and Type IV radio sweeps, and a 10cm (1,300 sfu) radio burst.

    Forecasters are awaiting coronagraph imagery in order to further analyze this event but based on source region location and early indication from
    SDO imagery, a geoeffective component is expected.

    Keep in mind that further analysis of potential CME impacts from todays X1/2b flare could alter this projected forecast.

  59. Aurora prospects looking very good!

    :Product: Forecast Discussion
    :Issued: 2014 Sep 11 1230 UTC
    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    #
    Solar Activity

    .24 hr Summary…
    Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2158 (N16W06, Dkc/beta-gamma)
    produced largest solar event of the period, an X1/2b flare (R3/Strong)
    at 10/1745 UTC, along with associated Type II and Type IV radio sweeps,
    a 10cm radio burst, and a full halo coronal mass ejection (CME).

    While the 9 Sep CME, mentioned in previous discussions, is still
    expected to arrive early in the day on 12 Sep, the latest analysis of
    the WSA Enlil solar wind model indicated the CME associated with
    yesterdayâ??s X1/2b flare is likely to have an Earthward component as
    well. This second CME has an estimated speed near 1400 km/s and is
    expected to pass the Earths magnetosphere mid to late day (universal time) on 12 Sep.

    …Forecast…
    Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active levels, are
    anticipated for day one (11 Sep). Early on day two (12 Sep), the 09 Sep
    CME is expected to impact the Earths magnetosphere, bringing quiet to
    major storm (G2/Moderate) conditions at mid-latitudes, with isolated
    severe storm conditions at high latitudes, as a result. Later in the
    day, the CME associated with yesterdays X1 flare is expected to arrive
    at Earth, pushing conditions to the severe storm levels (G3/Strong) by the beginning of day three (13 Sep).

  60. Cheers for info Squonk..

    Gonna head out shortly, Let the daylight fade a wee bit more..Moon is a tad weaker now too.. it was Beautiful last night about 3 am with Purple and Blue rings..Gorgeous.

  61. Ahh…No luck…clear above but cloud / fog at the Horzon…Very Mild for this time of year…nice wee Indian summer.

    I’ll try again torrow. for tomorrow

  62. Brian,

    First of the two CME’s arrived last night about 1am our time. It did produce Kp=5 storm levels which would be marginal for all but perhaps the very North of Scotland.

    The second CME is much larger and due to arrive any time now with a duration well into Saturday – so tonight should be worth a look definitely. I’ll post updates if I can.

  63. Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
    Serial Number: 156
    Issue Time: 2014 Sep 12 1533 UTC

    WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
    Valid From: 2014 Sep 12 1545 UTC
    Valid To: 2014 Sep 12 1645 UTC
    IP Shock Passage Observed: 2014 Sep 12 1530 UTC

  64. Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
    Serial Number: 246
    Issue Time: 2014 Sep 12 1535 UTC

    WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
    Valid From: 2014 Sep 12 1545 UTC
    Valid To: 2014 Sep 13 0900 UTC
    Warning Condition: Onset
    NOAA Scale: G2 – Moderate
    Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
    Induced Currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
    Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
    Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
    Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

  65. Asteroid Threat
    by James Hoover / September 11th, 2014

    Space is not an uneventful void. On a cosmic time and space scale, over millions of years and millions of miles, there are soundless, smell-less, visually-undetected threats to humankind, threats that might develop over several lifetimes but suddenly cross into our currency, thus changing our lives.

    Using visible or invisible waves of energy, generally heat from the asteroid or the Sun’s reflection, only a small percentage of such objects in space – mainly asteroids – are detected. Consequently, by the time undetected physical threats approach our atmosphere, it is too late.

    Our most recent shock to Earthly senses was a sixty-foot-diameter boulder, which had been dislodged from the asteroid belt over 290 million years ago, joining an Apollo class of asteroids in near-Earth orbit (regularly crossing the Earth’s orbit) – that is, until something disrupted its orbit and spun it inexorably toward and finally into Earth’s atmosphere (orbit track). Reaching our atmosphere, it glowed brighter than the Sun, witnesses feeling its intense heat. Its ear-shattering explosion sent shockwaves that damaged over 7,000 buildings and injured 1,500.

    /..
    http://dissidentvoice.org/2014/09/asteroid-threat/

  66. Look outside if you have clear skies now.

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html

    Space Weather Message Code: ALTK07
    Serial Number: 88
    Issue Time: 2014 Sep 12 2309 UTC
    ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
    Threshold Reached: 2014 Sep 12 2302 UTC
    Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
    Active Warning: Yes
    NOAA Scale: G3 – Strong
    Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
    Induced Currents – Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
    Spacecraft – Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
    Navigation – Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
    Radio – HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
    Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

  67. Ben,

    I’d take what you read in certain places about CMEs and quakes/volcano etc with a very large truck-load of salt. Certainly the energy interaction with the planet is enormous but evidence for any strong correlation isn’t very impressive. I think there was an interesting paper that suggested an apparently statistically significant correlation but I don’t think it has stood up too well to peer examination.

    That said it’s not something I’m an expert on by any means!

  68. I see what you mean, but the life-span of studies is short. I don’t think earth-facing CME’s have been correlated from non. Is that correct? GM storms affect the magnetosphere at the very least. A lack of data made flat-earthers comfortable until Columbus discovered perspective as the masts of ships appeared on the horizon. Not scientific; but persuasive, AA.

Comments are closed.