Okay as an experiment here it is. Discuss your favourite generals here!
Well perhaps… Really this is simply the place to post news-items, fun-items or whatever takes your fancy. In short just post what you want here.
It’s just another wee experiment – comments welcome.
[Image: General Sir Anthony Cecil Hogmanay Melchett (Stephen Fry)]
1,586 thoughts on “General Discussion – 2”
Russian tv reacts to above video showing free speech is not yet totally dead.
Only November 22nd and we had the first insufficient system generation margin of the year for this evening. Later cancelled due to sufficient imports being made available. Mainly we got it from France and France got it from Germany.
Complete destruction of Ukraine then on to Kazakhstan
“Something tells me I’d better activate my prayer capsule”
“And you kill what you fear
And you fear what you don’t understand”
We’ve been quite lucky with weather so far but sign of possible extended cold period in mid range models. This from GFS Parallel (goes live on Nov 29)
Snow cover Monday 12th December
At that range it is not likely to be accurate but it is possible
So at 7pm tomorrow England play Wales in the World Cup and National Grid currently predicting they won’t be able to meet demand at that time unless that demand is reduced.
If I read the gobbledegook below correctly that’s an insufficient margin notice for 6pm tonight (Monday) as well.
2022-11-28 14:04 * CMN_202211281404_00000002.bmr * * Capacity Market warning Data * *File_NAME,CMW_SYS_ID,CMW_BUS_ID,CMW_CREATION_DATETIME,CMW_COMMENCEMENT_DATETIME,CMW_END_DATETIME,CMW_EXPIRATION_DATETIME,CMW_EXPIRATION_MODE,CMW_REASON_FOR_EXPIRATION,CMW_CIRCUMSTANCE,SYSTEM_MARGIN,ADDITIONAL_CAPACITY,DEMAND_VALUE,AGGREGATION_CAPACITY,DCI_EVENT_NO,DCI_START_DATE_TIME,DCI_REASON,RECORD_CREATE_DATETIME,RECORD_UPDATE_DATETIME,USER_CREATED_BY,USER_UPDATED_BY CMN_202211281404_00000002.bmr,40074,CMN20221128133356,2022-11-28 13:33:56,2022-11-28 18:00:00,2022-11-28 14:04:49,2022-11-28 18:00:00,Auto,,ISM,446.287,,38338.22,38784.507,,,,2022-11-28 13:33:56,2022-11-28 14:04:49,SYSTEM,ETRMODISPRDAPPUSER
LOLP (Loss of Load Probability) alert
Margin warning for 28/11/2022 18:00. LOLP: 28.999999999999996 %. Derated margin: 62.83 MW
2.5GW just started to come in from France for peak UK demand
France is also importing 7GW from Germany.
Breakdown of peak imports which kept lights on in the UK tonight.
So now the England-Wales match is out of the way, people will be paid to sit in the dark tonight and tomorrow. A “test” for now…
GFS model doubles down.
Friday 9th December snow cover
13th December snow cover
18th December snow cover
Another cold gfs run.
Another insufficient generation safety margin notice for Thursday
Winter 1963 – BBC Documentary from 1963.
As Rye House is 700MW that’s 4.2 million quid per hour.
Just as well there’s a warm up coming
UK Medium Range Storage for gas projected to reach zero about Christmas Day at current drain rates. Just as for electricity we depend again on real time imports from Europe to keep our gas on when it gets cold.
Where’s the cold gone?
Well at least there’s no need to worry about the cold for much longer!
You would sort of think humanity ceasing to exist might be getting near to a Chinese Red Line but what do I know.
Oh well at least there’s a chance Russia won’t end life on earth before the year is over…
This was pretty insane
Deaths registered in England and Wales 1838-2021
Note the big spikes from Spanish Flu, covid and Hitler but hard to even spot the Hong Kong Flu in the noise. The spike for winter 63 is even more obvious. So the Hong Kong Flu can’t really be compared to covid in terms of UK mortality impact.
Peak deaths in 2020 would have been a lot higher without measures and would have towered over even the 1918 spike (just add 2021 excess deaths to 2020 for a start). Could we have avoided lockdown? Of course we could but at a cost.
And globally https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates
And the world has become a much more dangerous place post-covid. It’s almost as if something has dropped the global IQ and increased executive dysfunction.
Next stop. Nuclear Armageddon? Oh well at least it will make the covid death spike look like nothing.
US Excess Deaths
Discussion on excess deaths, with special guest Stuart McDonald. Prof Christina Pagel & Dr Duncan Robertson will be hosting the session, Prof Anthony Costello chairing & Dr Duncan Robertson also on numbers.
Preliminary week 3 data suggests a fast return to baseline.
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