1,512 thoughts on “General Discussion – 2

  1. Clark; I’m certain you’ve seen the flick IDIOCRACY but if you haven’t it’s a must.

    Prophetic, funny and plausible

  2. Idiocracy is a pretty good film, quite funny – if a bit crude – and probably rather closer to the truth than we’d generally like to admit. Not particularly PC.

  3. The Comet is Coming!
    Babylon burned down!
    Our time has come, our clock has run down
    The arctic has cracked, the mountain is popped, the river is ripped, the air is churned
    The skyscraper is falling, like volume turned down
    I see all, from the cliff side, by the ring side
    From the front seat view of the riptide
    I, this man, me, this matchstick
    Understand the futility of our antics
    How pointless, the decimals, the zeros of my fabric
    My trainer’s, my fabric, my designer casket
    Just me, the last link in this unbroken chain
    Who fell away and came to life of crucifix slave
    I, this man,
    I know this now, I know this now
    All that matters is the moments
    All that matters is the moments

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KfenRxWWnY

  4. I’ve heard it said that we are the virus. Covid is the vaccine, still in development.

  5. “No he isn’t.”

    Then how come all the posts I make say “Your post is awaiting moderation” indefinitely?

  6. Craig is certainly not a criminal. He is short on cash, so vulnerable to malicious, malevolent prosecution.

  7. If anything can inspire righteous indignation, it’s the over-sized bureaucracy known as the ‘Law’, which when exercised as power unbridled leads to the guillotine response and more Napoleons.

    “Revolution always degraded to the lowest common denominator….REVENGE!!”

    {Paraphrased from Zardoz}

  8. but yer nose might go to sleep for two days and wake up confused and hungry, and that’d be a disaster. And illegal.

  9. God forbid you violate the law in UK, Clark

    Could Squonk be held responsible for talking about it?

    I hadn’t thought of that.

    I’m sorry

  10. That’ll be a personal choice, Ben. There are plenty of vegans in XR but it isn’t compulsory; just the Ten Principles, which would mostly affect the way it would be discussed; non aggressively and non evasively.

  11. “Your dubious record” – that you’ve just reaffirmed.

    Maybe you’ve become so mesmerised by media political coverage over the decades that you now genuinely believe that there is some sort of validity in sloganeering and selective exaggeration and omission. But I know that you diagnose and fix technical faults, so at some level you must know that honesty, rigour and intellectual self discipline are necessary prerequisites to all practical endeavours.

    Following the opinions of whoever sounds wittiest never fixed an engine or a computer except perhaps rarely by accident, and even those few cases fail to expand the participants’ understanding.

  12. It’s no lie that some have adverse reactions based on their genetics and immune system.

    I don’t know why big Pharma runs ads when the required concluding comments briefly cite the list of possible side effects like bleeding out your ass or sudden death.

    But the odds are like winning the lottery, in reverse. It’s fate, like being on a commercial flight that crashes. The statistics give one some assurance, but I still get nervous on takeoff and landing and yet I still fly.

  13. Fred: “When I posted about my friend who got blood clots on his brain after receiving the covid jab they said I was a liar.

    Maybe you shouldn’t lie so often, then.

  14. I suppose it would have been better for him to get blood clots from covid. Proper, natural blood clots rather than these new-fangled anthropogenic ones.

    Unless SARS-CoV-2 did indeed come out of a lab, in which case you should always prefer the stuff they release accidentally or surreptitiously because science is a malign conspiracy.

  15. We have some vaccine resisters in our family and I decided to take steps after attending birthday party. We’ve agreed we will henceforth ALWAYS mask in their presence, and I may make lapel buttons saying ‘please keep your distance. No hugs’. My wife will suffer most from this.

  16. I heard a virologist (in the podcast I referenced last week actually, not sure if anyone bothered listening) say that if you’re in an enclosed space such as a average size living room with someone for 15 minutes, you’re likely to get a dose – particularly delta.

    Wearing a cloth mask will give you another 15 minutes.

    A surgical mask will provide an extra half hour, and the N-95 mask will give you 25 hours of protection.

    This is all based on a bunch of averages, but you see the proportions involved.

    So if your crazed anti-vaxxer family members are unmasked and in your presence for any length of time, they’re likely to give you a dose. People insane enough to deny the existence of science/ vaccines/ Covid are likely to take a lot more risk than your average citizen, so they’re far more likely to be infectious.

  17. It’s a perverse irony that we will be seen in negative light wherein the most ignorant are the most confident, while only the wiser, are beset by doubts

  18. Glenn, thanks for that very practical summary; I indeed hadn’t got around to listening to the podcast. Yes, I feel exposed when I encounter denialists, anti-maskers etc. Many also have this unsettling tendency of sidling closer and closer during conversation as if to make their point, though it probably isn’t entirely conscious. I know one of these from before the pandemic and he never used to do it. After he’s done with me he moves on to his next target; people subtly back away. His wife gently restrains him with hints and a hand to his elbow; she seems wearily frustrated.

  19. Ben, indeed. In politics it has reached crisis proportions. Considerate voices are drowned out by ignorant braggarts.

  20. I remember when science wasn’t fixed, it was constantly being refined, researched, debated, updated.

    Now it is just something to be manipulated to further a political agenda. When it is cold in April shout “weather” and when it is warm in July shout “climate” and if anyone points out the hypocrisy then just cancel them, discredit them, silence them.

  21. Ben.

    If the vaccine works then if you have taken the vaccine you are protected.

    Someone choosing not to take the vaccine is risking their own health not yours.

    Covid is being used by the haters to turn people against each other, to take away people’s basic human rights, the freedom to choose their own path, choose their own beliefs.

  22. No, Fred – sorry, Anon – you’re remembering incorrectly. There were always mischief-makers like yourself around, who deliberately misinterpret, push in sneaky lies, accuse others of bad faith while acting that way the whole while, and sowing doubt where action was needed.

    The purveyors of tobacco were doing that since the 1950s, for instance. Even you are probably not old enough to remember some supposed golden age before then, when everybody told the truth and that was all everyone was interested in.

  23. “No, Fred – sorry, Anon – you’re remembering incorrectly. There were always mischief-makers like yourself around”

    There have always been nasty little shits like yourself who attack the person rather than debating the subject.

  24. Fred: “If the vaccine works then if you have taken the vaccine you are protected.

    Completely wrong, I’m afraid. The vaccine is not 100% effective, no vaccine ever is. In addition, the unvaccinated are in a strong position to produce variants to which the vaccine is less, or totally, ineffective.

    F: “Someone choosing not to take the vaccine is risking their own health not yours.

    Wrong – this conclusion is based on false premise. See above.

    F: “Covid is being used by the haters to turn people against each other, to take away people’s basic human rights, the freedom to choose their own path, choose their own beliefs.

    Misinformation – such as that which you peddle for your own amusement – is causing people to turn against one another. Covid is taking away people’s lives, never mind just their rights. One can choose their own beliefs, but not their own facts.

    In any case, those stupid and selfish enough not to take vaccines – and particularly those who encourage them not to – are not providing “freedom”, they are providing misinformation and death.

    But it’s all just a game to you, right Fred?

  25. Fred: “”There have always been nasty little shits like yourself who attack the person rather than debating the subject.

    And not a single word to refute the points I made, just an attack on the person.

    Do you approve of such behaviour? If so, what are you complaining about?

    Conversely, do you not approve of such behaviour? Then why did you do that, and that only, in the above?

  26. F: “Someone choosing not to take the vaccine is risking their own health not yours.”

    Another point which I meant to mention – health resources are consumed when some fool who decides not to vaccinate gets Covid. Such serious cases virtually all consist of the unvaccinated. A stay in intensive care is jolly expensive, and takes up precious resources. Someone might be in ICU for a month, typically, when they get to that stage. It’s often much longer. A heart operation requires ICU attendance for a matter of days.

    It’s tricky to have heart attack/ operation patients in the same ward as some vaccine “hesitant”, self-inflicted Covid case.

    So if Ben requires his appendix to be removed, maybe that’s not going to happen because the hospitals cannot find the capacity – being overrun with your people exercising their freedom by getting Covid.

    So it should be more than obvious, than someone not getting vaccinated has quite an impact on the sane among us. It’s not just a personal choice, no more than drunk-driving is a personal choice.

  27. “Completely wrong, I’m afraid. The vaccine is not 100% effective, no vaccine ever is.”

    No, of people who are fully vaccinated 0.03% have caught covid and 0.02% of that 0.03% ended up in hospital.

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/risk-covid-after-vaccine

    Do you know someone who rides a motorcycle is 38 times more likely to be killed on the roads as a car driver? Do you think there is a good case for banning motorcycles?

  28. Fred: I think your perspective reveals a peak in trust issues that ignores the viral ability to mutate more quickly due to unprotected carriers. That increases the chances that the immunized can become Typhoid Marys because Deltas viral load is reportedly 1000x greater even in the vaccinated, who carry that load in their noses for the most part. If that person has strong enough immune response they can escape symptoms or suffer less, but the transmission to unvaccinated is still extant. I know you already know the facts as we accept them, but trust is lacking. What source of info do you trust?

  29. Ben, here in Britain the Office of National Statistics figures yesterday showed 93% of the population carry antibodies to covid. That is the point at which we achieve herd immunity. Covid will always be with us but it will be just another disease like flu or pneumonia.

    In the meantime I find the precedents being set alarming, radical changes are being made using covid as an excuse. Personal freedoms are being eroded using the health of society as an excuse. We have a government which has enjoyed 18 months of absolute control and they are drunk on power, I fear they will never voluntarily relinquish this power.

    Britain has become a “Papers Please” society overnight and I fear now introduced that will be expanded. The government claims vaccines are optional but they have made life without them impossible for many, the mechanisms put in place will be utilised to control the population in the future.

    What would happen if this principle of the absolute total safety of society trumping personal freedoms be applied to other aspects of life in America? What if people had to show their tested free from cannabis card to enter a football stadium?

    I once read that before the wall fell in East Germany one in four people were Stasi informers, I used to find that hard to believe but not any more.

  30. August 5 at 11:36 pm:

    Glenn – “… The vaccine is not 100% effective, no vaccine ever is.”

    Fred – No, of people who are fully vaccinated 0.03% have caught covid and 0.02% of that 0.03% ended up in hospital”

    Fred, do you believe that you replied honestly there? Note that I am asking about what you believe about your own intent, not the accuracy or honesty of the figures you posted. Doyou believe that you replied honestly?

  31. Businessmen have found gold in the virus. The shutdown made them see opportunity by cutting payroll and services like clean restrooms being eliminated along with inside dining.

    But politicians aren’t enjoying being hammered daily by lockdowns and seem to always be defensive on the subject that frankly decreases re-election prospects. California’s governor is facing recall shortly, and COVID mandates are largely the reason, Fred.

    Only the outright criminal Bund of TRUMP cultism is seemingly drunk with power of influence.

    They seem to relish that role no matter the human consequences, and are the true recipients of that STASI groupthink.

  32. I made a post back in may, which was blocked, asking you this question Ben.

    If you were a doctor and you had four patients who would die if they didn’t receive transplants and one healthy patient apart from a broken leg, would you kill the healthy patient so you could use his organs to save the lives of the other four?

    They are vaccinating children now, children who are at a much lower risk from covid and at a greater risk from the vaccine than adults.

  33. Within that narrow hypothetical, I would have to say no to harvesting organs Fred. But we’re not talking about a few people

    Conversely, I ask: If millions were at risk of dying because a good portion of them refused to use headlights or car seats for their kids on their vehicles, which side would you be on?

    I don’t know about the UK but children under 12 are not vaccinated in US

  34. This is one of the major techniques conspiracy theorists use to spread their poison – by constantly setting the agenda, and evading genuine engagement.

    Aggression, in other words. I find it unacceptable.

  35. As usual – Fred totally ignores multiple points which counter his assertion. He just looks at one small point about a single item, and then lies about that.

  36. Clark, why do you find it so hard to believe that anyone could have a different opinion to you? Ben and myself have different opinions on the balance we should take between personal freedom and the well being of society, we manage to discuss it in a civil manner, like adults, without calling each other names or casting aspersions on each other, why can’t you?

    Personally I find the way we have treated children throughout this epidemic disgusting. We have stolen their youth, prevented them playing out with their friends, stopped them going to play parks, stopped them going to school and made them wear muzzles even though the risk to them from covid is lower than other diseases we have previously ignored. We rode roughshod over their personal rights to protect us adults and we plan to inject them with a substance the long term effects of which are completely unknown, not to protect them, to protect adults.

    BTW take a look at this and just consider the possibility that you may occasional get things wrong and those who disagree with you might sometimes be right.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/07/un-climate-panel-confronts-implausibly-hot-forecasts-future-warming

  37. Fred, you’ve been behaving passive aggressively. Again. I ask you questions, and you ignore them – that’s a typical passive-aggressive behaviour, one from the subset of withholding cooperation, especially in communication. When I complain about it, you blame me and accuse me of intolerance.

    I’m used to this from you Fred; I saw it repeatedly when you were arguing against Scottish independence. You’d make sly remarks, cast aspersions, lump the person you were discussing with in with some malevolent group – but always low-key, subtle enough to get past moderation. Then you’d escalate until you got an insult or imputation of motive out of them, at which point you’d issue one of your “fuck off and die, Nazi” catchphrases.

    You did it over and over again.

    You’re welcome to your opinion, though I find your wilful ignorance and lack of reasoning distasteful. However, propagandising and misrepresenting facts are deceptive and manipulative behaviours; treating others as inferiors and a type of abuse.

    So now, please answer the question. Did you believe yourself to be communicating fairly and honestly in your August 5 at 11:36 pm comment?

  38. “…the risk to them from covid is lower than other diseases we have previously ignored.”

    “we plan to inject them with a substance the long term effects of which are completely unknown”

    Spot the double standard. You know the long term risk from covid, do you Fred? Can you really see the future, or is this merely another example of you assuming that you know better than others, an assumption of your own superiority?

  39. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-58080116

    Covid vaccine refuser died after terrible mistake, says partner

    A man who died with Covid after refusing to be vaccinated made a “terrible mistake” which put his family at risk, his partner has said.

    Leslie Lawrenson, 58, died at his home in Bournemouth, Dorset, on 2 July.

    His partner Amanda Mitchell, 56, who was seriously ill with Covid at the same time, said he thought the vaccines were too “experimental”.

    She told the Stephen Nolan programme on BBC Radio 5 live: “I feel incredibly foolish. Les died unnecessarily.”

  40. Yes Fred I’d be happy for you to point me at the long term safety research on this virus that is genetically modified from its bat ancestor to love humans and not bats, complete with upgraded cell entry mechanisms similar to previous research published by Wuhan Institute of Virology and others. That is a fact. Whether nature or a lab did it is the question.

    If a lab did it then quite ironic that anti-vaccers prefer a man-made virus to a man-made vaccine.

  41. I guess that Fred’s link concerns the CIMP5 or whatever they’re called fifth generation climate models. I read some months back that these new models now incorporate energy transfer between liquid and vapour phases of water in clouds, I think, and were producing some surprisingly high predictions of warming. So presumably they’re being evaluated by plugging in historical conditions and seeing how well their predictions from there onwards match the records that we have.

    None of which makes the blindest difference to the seriousness of the ongoing climate and ecological emergency.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/climate-change-continues-to-be-evident-across-uk

    “…All of the top-ten warmest years for the UK in records back to 1884 have occurred since 2002, and, for central England, the 21st century so far has been warmer than the previous three centuries.

    – The last 30-year period (1991-2020) has been 0.9°C warmer than the preceding 30 years (1961-1990). The warming trend is evident across all months and all countries in the UK.”

  42. What I will say about the climate modelling software suites is that I looked to see if I could download any of them and found that they were only available to institutions that agreed by a non-disclosure agreement.

    That is wrong; they should be published under the GNU General Public License or similar. But it doesn’t invalidate climate science.

  43. Clark, your posts are textbook examples of cognitive dissonance. Your thought train seems to run “I am never wrong, he posted evidence I am wrong, therefore he must be a troll”.

  44. Sorry Fred, what evidence is that?

    Your 8:08 comment is merely a smear, an ad hominem attack, as is so much of what you write, the rest of it being politicised spin, eg: “the decision to vaccinate children is political not medical”, based on a report that clearly states:

    “… fewer than 30 children have died because of COVID-19 in the UK as of March 2021. […] Until more safety data is available and has been evaluated, a precautionary approach is preferred. […] the health benefits of vaccinating them [children] are small” [my emphasis], and “we will keep this advice under review as more safety and effectiveness information becomes available.”

    Your link does not support your assertion; please behave more honestly.

  45. I am not surprised that the least of all virtues, good intentions, drives the do-gooders to exaggerate negatives to scare the shit out of the Public.

    I’ve seen it before and the damage done to their credibility leads to climate skeptics spilling over to vaccine skepticism.

    Karmic residue is a bitch, but Fred’s intellect and education should assist him make wise decisions like calculating the risk versus reward of inoculation.

    Smallpox vacs during Revolutionary war were a scalpel coated with pus inserted under the skin and that saved the Continental Army.

  46. AA, Clark; Do you think the CDC engaged in well-intentioned fudging of facts during this Pandemic? I know there were missteps like Fauci first saying masking was unnecessary but I think the context, which is also misunderstood by some who just refuse to accept it’s not just the Flu, was exaggerated by skeptics with irrational emotions dominating all thinking.

  47. Ben, I haven’t really been looking for fudging of official data. I did notice that Belarus was accused of it and threw out some Russian journalists, and I wish that Worldometers would get rid of the spike in China’s figures on 12 Feb 2020 because it suppresses everything else on the graph. I had been assuming that US figures would be pretty reliable because it does have proper civic structures and a healthcare system.

    But governments and companies certainly treat the public as if we’re idiots, especially in their pronouncements for mass media – probably mostly just to save themselves from attempting to say anything intelligent and risk getting it wrong.

    It’s all become stupidly polarised. The pandemic shouldn’t be a politicised issue; it’s not an ‘issue’, it’s a predicament.

  48. What I’ve done mostly is watch curves and think about growth rates. Fred claimed to be discussing “different opinions on the balance we should take between personal freedom and the well being of society” – can’t say I’ve seen him do any of that, but it’s anyway pointless to try discussing it before understanding the dynamics of the disease.

    What’s inexcusable are misrepresentation of and evasion of discussion about the reality of our predicament, to protect one’s political stance from being evaluated in terms of its likely consequences. “I have decided what’s best, and you lot don’t need to understand, you just need to sing from this hymn sheet instead of the government’s hymn sheet (you idiots)”.

    You had Trump and we’ve got Johnson. That’s what passes for leadership these days.

  49. Yep. Scotland has a problem with an authoritarian feminist SNP cult. The SNP has developed a taste for power, bought into the pro-war centrist consensus, and seems to have kicked independence into the long grass.

    I’m very disappointed to have got it right again. Some people opposed independence because they thought the SNP would have become dictatorial. I said, if you want rid of the SNP then support independence, because post independence the SNP will have served its function and the public’s support will migrate to other parties. They were right about the SNP (which I didn’t guess) but 180 degrees wrong about the solution.

    The thing that’s so shitty is that the only reason I keep getting things right is my pessimism, and when I don’t see it coming it’s because it was even worse than I thought.

  50. What is the justification for non-jury trials , Clark?

    It’s as Regressive as conservative ‘values’

    I half-jokingly suggest I would be a good benevolent dictator, until I contemplate the opposition attempting to overthrow me.

    I would become just like them…authoritarian and violently so

  51. It’s intended to raise the conviction rate of sexual abuse charges.

    Have you seen their new anti hate speech laws? Craig had been blogging about such stuff for ages.

  52. The backlog from the virus is being used to introduce “temporary” trials without jury Ben, just as the impossibly long waiting list for medical treatment will be used to dismantle the NHS.

    Here in the Highlands they have used the virus as an excuse to reduce speed limits for nearly an entire town.

    https://www.highland.gov.uk/download/downloads/id/23424/thurso_-_road_traffic_regulation_order_-_20mph.pdf

    The people have been terrified into compliance with tales of crematoriums going 24 hours a day in Wuhan and bodies piled high in the streets in India, the MSM all sing from the same hymn book.

  53. “Oh, English trials.”

    If you spent more time thinking about the topic of discussion and less time thinking about me you’d be able to keep track better.

  54. Masks are probably here to stay, Fred.

    But once this strain fizzles out from a lack of replication, all those control mechanisms you describe should be dismantled as easily as Trumps executive orders. Sooner is better than later.

  55. Anti-vaxxers are trying to storm the BBC headquarters. They showed their hand by going to Television Centre, vacated by the BBC in 2013. The police will probably intercept them before they can get into Broadcasting House.

  56. Brendan O’Neill’s preferred hymn sheet too.

    He’s written for The Spectator, the New Statesman, BBC News Online, The Christian Science Monitor, The American Conservative, Salon, Rising East, The Guardian, The Daily Telegraph, the Big Issue, The Australian and The Sun.

    But presumably never the MSM.

    Maybe they should go after Ferguson at ICL next; you know, “Professor Lockdown” or “Professor Pantsdown”. Those nicknames didn’t come from the MSM either.

  57. “They’re singing from Fred’s preferred hymn sheet. ”

    I’m not an anti-vaxer Clark, I have my flu jab every year. I’m pro the individual’s right to choose, I’m anti-segregation.

    You just can’t get me out of your head can you, you are just not capable of posting about the topic not about me.

  58. “Maybe they should go after Ferguson at ICL next”

    They should go after the government that listened to him given his track record.

    [Imperial College epidemiologist Neil] Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of eleven million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die. There were fewer than 200 deaths. . . .

    In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.

    In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

    In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.

    Last March, Ferguson admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus. Ferguson declined to release his original code so other scientists could check his results. He only released a heavily revised set of code last week, after a six-week delay.

    https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/05/08/so-the-real-scandal-is-why-did-anyone-ever-listen-to-this-guy/

  59. Two people knew were killed by covid-19. They were elderly, and I apologise for feeling any loss. Likewise I apologise for caring that a friend’s mother was killed, and for my feelings towards another friend of mine, six of whom’s friends died. I also know that I must learn to be less concerned towards two friends of mine who each have an immunocompromised daughter.

    Deception will always triumph over honesty. The world rightly belongs to the strong.

  60. Fred,

    FLAMEON

    Shut the fuck up and get off my blog you pathetic old man.

    The Tory government’s response to the pandemic has never been to trust in the models. Instead they have waited until hospital numbers climbed in reality and only acted when it was clear the NHS was in trouble.

    Ferguson’s job is explicitly to warn of the worst possible case (and yes model the more likely options as well). Fuckwits like you might as well argue against car safety features as the worst possible case doesn’t usually happen on a car trip.

    You have the freedom to think you are right as well as I but I’m telling you to fuck off and spew your bile elsewhere. Seems quite clear to me your IQ has fallen quite substantially since you first started posting at Craig’s.

    By all means go and stand in the street with your banner demanding that children be exposed to SARS-Cov-2 again and again because that’s what accepting it as endemic without child vaccinations likely means. You obviously do have the long term virus safety data in the imaginary area formerly referred to as your brain.

    Bitter, stupid fuckwit you are.

  61. And a “realistic” worst possible case right now based on genetic sequencing/analysis of the virus and mutational paths open to it.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007566/S1335_Long_term_evolution_of_SARS-CoV-2.pdf

    Scenario One: A variant that causes severe disease in a greater proportion of the population than has occurred to date. For example, with similar morbidity/mortality to other zoonotic coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV (~10% case fatality) or MERS-CoV (~35% case fatality). This could be caused by:

    1. Point mutations or recombination with other host or viral genes. This might occur through a change in SARS-CoV-2 internal genes such as the polymerase proteins or accessory proteins. These genes determine the outcome of infection by affecting the way the virus is sensed by the cell, the speed at which the virus replicates and the anti-viral response of the cell to infection. There is precedent for Coronaviruses (CoVs) to acquire additional genes or sequences from the host, from themselves or from other viruses.

    2. By recombination between two VOC or VUIs. One with high drift (change in the spike glycoprotein) from the current spike glycoprotein gene used in the vaccine and the other with a more efficient replication and transmission determined by internal genes, for
    example, a recombination between beta and alpha or delta variants respectively. Alternatively, recombination may occur between two different variants with two different strategies for overcoming innate immunity, combining to give an additive or synergistic
    change of phenotype resulting in higher replication of the virus – and potentially increased morbidity and mortality.

    Likelihood of genotypic change in internal genes: Likely whilst the circulation of SARS-
    CoV-2 is high
    .

    Likelihood of increased severity phenotype: Realistic possibility.

    Impact: High. Unless there is significant drift in the spike glycoprotein gene sequence, then the current spike glycoprotein-based vaccines are highly likely to continue to provide protection against serious disease. However, an increase in morbidity and mortality would be expected even in the face of vaccination since vaccines do not provide absolute sterilising immunity i.e. they do not fully prevent infection in most individuals

    Lab experiments infecting young mice with SARS-Cov-2 via sequential passage have been able to demonstrate a path to very high lethality in mice with engineered human like immune systems – so don’t think something very bad isn’t possible with humans as well.

  62. Well said, Squonk. It was about time someone gave that miserable, sly old bastard the bums-rush.

  63. Heard the other day:

    “Man, all these doctors, nurses, microbiologists, epidemiologists, and other researcher keep saying COVID-19 is dangerous. But all these people who barely passed science in school keep saying it’s not. It’s so hard to know who to believe anymore.”

  64. Ok I’ll answer that Fred. I was surprised that he said that as Imperial’s own modelling had R in Scotland dropping below 1 when the schools closed. He said “almost inevitable” so he did leave himself some room and that what he wasn’t sure about was if that would be a peak due to schools closing. What he got wrong was the effect of school closing is seen earlier than expected because so many pupils were not required to be in attendance in the last week or two of term (especially older kids) or had broken up earlier.

    Not a prediction but Ferguson may be right later this year with schools back and fading immunity in the first to be vaccinated.

  65. glenn, we cannot know what the science says while alternate hypotheses are being censored.

    Personally I see people trying to silence me as evidence I am right.

  66. “Personally I see people trying to silence me as evidence I am right.”

    Perhaps think twice before saying that to a psychiatrist.

    I’ve tried to be ahead of SARS-Cov-2 “mainstream news” from the start. I’m either doing that by reading the science and data as it emerges or I am management of this worldwide conspiracy – that what you are saying Fred?

    My telling you to fuck off, when you are talking what I consider shite, on my own blog, on a subject I care a lot about, is proof you are right?

  67. Fred, August 12 at 11:53 am:

    “… we cannot know what the science says while alternate hypotheses are being censored.”

    Alternate hypotheses are not being censored in the scientific literature. One could complain about peer review, but that doesn’t affect the preprint servers – which is where most of the pandemic discussion has occurred because peer review takes considerable time.

    In the corporate media or so called MSM, alternate hypotheses have been given markedly undue weight, in comparison with the appropriate scientific communities. John Ioannidis, Sunetra Gupta, Carl Heneghan etc. were all given considerable coverage by major corporate news media. Several of them met with and advised Boris Johnson, despite the overwhelming criticism they were receiving from within their professional fields.

    It is only on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube etc. that such censorship has occurred, and really, what would anyone expect? They do not have a high enough moderator-to-contributor ratio to do anything beyond algorithm aided censorship and tagging.

    By contrast there are sites such as this and the forums at Craig’s, where contributors such as Squonk and myself here, and ET, SA and Dr Edd at Craig’s, will engage in rational, evidence-based debate – yet those I dismiss as conspiracy theorists consistently evade proper debate – by acting as if they haven’t seen questions addressed to them, changing the subject whenever they’re about to concede a point, posting cherry-picked factoids, trying to manufacture controversy by descending into irrelevant details, and repeatedly accusing their opposition of having been duped by the “MSM’.

  68. Indeed Brian… 76 years, who cares or remembers anymore? Some truth is starting to come out now. Like, no pictures of the dead in Japan back then, just ruined buildings. Because officially, they were military targets.

  69. – “His [Ferguson’s] prediction that easing of lockdown would lead to 100,000 cased per day was best case wasn’t it?”

    He got that about right, I’d say. The figures peaked at around 54,000 cases on the highest day, but infection has been so utterly out of control in the UK that only a third to a half of actual infections have ever been detected.

    His other predictions were good too; the criticisms above, apparently from Columbia University (the link to statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu) actually originated from a hit-piece against him concocted by Katherine Rushton and Daniel Foggo in the Telegraph on 28 March 2020 at 7:00am* (incidentally also contradicting the claim that “the MSM have all been singing from the same hymn book and censoring all other hypotheses”).

    (* my overly specific references are to establish verifiability while avoiding linking to such deliberately biassed shite and thus boosting its page ranking.)

    Two of Ferguson’s figures were for the results if contaminated meat did get into the human food supply, whereas the low actual numbers resulted from most of it not doing so. If I remember rightly, the actual numbers were all within Ferguson’s lower and upper bounds; the hit piece was concocted partly by omitting the lower bounds.

  70. Squonk.

    You told me to”Shut the fuck up and get off my blog you pathetic old man.” for quoting, verbatim, an article published on the web site of Columbia University. I was involved first hand in the subjects of the article BTW and know well the opinions the farming community had for the scientific community.

    Actually I had already “shut the fuck up” but returned when you claimed “fred has not been banned” and strangely Clark did not ask if you considered your statement to be honest.

    Do you never stop and consider how the situation looks from the other person’s point of view? From here you being part of a conspiracy looks like a reasonable hypothesis.

    I see Pfizer first quarter profits were $14.6 billion up 45% on 2020.

  71. That “article published on the web site” is a blog post quoting a right wing news article written by right wing commentator John Fund. But yes encouraging the confused to think their salvation lies to the extreme right is an intentional strategy of fascism.

    The linked blog post also ends

    P.S. There seems to some truth to explanation 1 above, “Ferguson didn’t really make all those errors; if you look at his actual statements, he was sane and reasonable.”

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