Okay as an experiment here it is. Discuss your favourite generals here!
Well perhaps… Really this is simply the place to post news-items, fun-items or whatever takes your fancy. In short just post what you want here.
It’s just another wee experiment – comments welcome.
Squonk.
[Image: General Sir Anthony Cecil Hogmanay Melchett (Stephen Fry)]
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/14/a-tsunami-of-cases-desperation-as-covid-second-wave-batters-india
And Ben, not only is it already in the UK but also…
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/04/12/an-indian-sars-cov-2-variant-lands-in-california-more-danger-ahead/
Thanks AA
I’ve seen some news regarding the variant in the Bay Area but no real alarm
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/08/researchers-identify-five-new-cases-of-double-mutant-covid-variant-in-california-.html
I haven’t sensed a lot of flamboyant disregard for safety although restaurants and such have been more liberal.
Fortunately we live with open spaces around us and sparse population
From the Guardian above
“ Senthil had feared it was coming.
He had feared it as he saw the reckless crush of hundreds of people taking part in large wedding parties over the past months, feared it as he saw the maskless faces of shoppers at the market, feared it as he
I witnessed thousands come together for political rallies in the ongoing elections in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, where he is the president of the state medical council.”
Apparently folks thought the vaccine (Astra Zeneca) was an immortality pill .
That’s quite different from what I’ve seen in my state.
Ben,
Until a couple of days ago India was saying that they didn’t think this new variant was particularly problematic compared to others, which reduced concern in India and elsewhere.
Then they suddenly released data apparently showing that it is out-competing all other variants and likely is the major driver in current surge in India. The UK also quietly submitted sequences to international tracking databases that suggest the R number is currently above 1 in the UK for this new variant (that might just be a focussed testing anomaly if they were looking for it).
Meanwhile nobody officially in the UK is saying anything.
No official statements but…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9470607/Boris-Johnson-shortens-planned-trip-India-amid-Covid-spike.html
Yes AA but local attitudes are not anything like that in India.
They got careless
Ben,
I think some US States are more vulnerable than others. I think that also has a voting related bias. You can correct me if I am wrong about that but I’m perfectly happy if California gets it (the understanding, not the virus)! 🙂
My isolated circumstance may be a false sense of security but I still take precautions that have almost become routine.
I think that awareness, which I’ve seen ad nauseum in public service ads and relentless messaging is a safety net
American politics is confusing Ben.
The GPUS? Are they the ones who have shares in fracking companies?
British politics isn’t any less confusing mind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inAk4aJ_xhU
If you want to laugh at “marxists”, specifically those in a self appointed “leadership” role, aligned with conspiracy nutters, then search Heiko Khoo. Hours of fun viewing for you there Fred.
Squonk, I understand we cant discuss Murray’s case (not that I have any interest to anyway) but can we discuss Alba (without reference to Murray)?
Friigin Henry, those comments on Fred’s YT link. Corbyn and Khoo are two very experienced active lefties. They were always fringe and considered “odd”, but now seem to fully court the fascist leaning right. They are in deep. Khoo seems to be in the middle of a mental health crisis.
Politics makes strange bedfellows Fred
Pedophiles often are publicly seen as vigilant enemies of pedophiles and prosecute with severe prejudice.
Phil: good to see you back
Hi Ben.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/15/covid-variant-first-detected-india-found-uk
This chart is concerning
Is it racist to suggest hygiene and waste treatment in India exacerbate the spikes?
Ben,
If it has grown as fast as it apparently has in the UK (despite lockdown, prior exposure “immunity” and vaccines) then we will see another huge spike down the line, like India, if it continues to do so.
Squonk, I don’t think that necessarily follows. The B.1.617 variant has shown a high reproductive rate under stay-at-home restrictions, but among the whole population its incidence is still low. So possibly, or even probably, it is spreading within a minority of the population in which cross-infection is more likely eg. reckless denialists, and people who can’t avoid crowding indoors etc. It may not be able to achieve positive growth rate in the wider population.
“People who can’t avoid crowding indoors” – I worry that schools may be a conduit.
Social restrictions are being relaxed in the UK. So far, overall incidence (dominated by the UK strain) hasn’t started rising. Hopefully, that is due to vaccination (see also Israel), in which case B.1.617’s success will depend upon whether it can evade vaccination-induced immunity.
But also the weather is much nicer now; people are not crowding indoors so much. Another bad scenario is that B.1.617 does evade vaccination-induced immunity, but it doesn’t start spreading widely until autumn.
“Is it racist to suggest hygiene and waste treatment in India exacerbate the spikes?
It’s certainly worth a try!
Seriously though, religious idiocy has probably got more to do with the huge and sudden spread than anything else, just as they have in Amerika.
I’m worried to see Squonk worried again 🙁
– “I’m worried to see Squonk worried again”
Tell you what; let’s all go cherry-picking to cheer us up!
By the way the media is quoting the figure of 77 detected in the UK, however that is based on a weekly update from a few days ago.
As of today there are 140 sequences uploaded by UK to tracking databases. Yesterday it was 98. Keep in mind it takes about two weeks minimum for sequencing so these figures relate to positive tests more than two weeks ago. We don’t seem to have a rapid PCR detection kit that can distinguish this variant although one could be created.
Also it seems not all the 42 sequences added yesterday were brand new – some were previous sequences that have been re-analysed and found to be B.1.617.
However any way you look at it the UK has gone from having zero detections of B.1.617 to 140 detections in the space of about 5 weeks or so.
The March 2020 and onwards stay-at-home was complied with far more thoroughly than that of January 2021 and onwards, and the ‘Kent strain’ is said to be more infective than the one it displaced, yet the restrictions still forced prevalence to fall, even with winter weather keeping people indoors.
I suspect a threshold effect; the restrictions force R down to below 1 in a large majority of the population, causing the overall R to be below 1. But R remains above 1 in a minority, permitting the virus to maintain a constant foothold from which it rebounds when restrictions are lifted.
We need a histogram of R versus population.
– “zero detections of B.1.617 to 140 detections in the space of about 5 weeks”
That works out at multiplying by about 2.7 per week.
– “Keep in mind it takes about two weeks minimum for sequencing so these figures relate to positive tests more than two weeks ago”
So about a thousand by now.
UK daily new positive tests are only about 2600, so if B.1.617 is going to go up like a rocket it should show in the overall numbers within a week.
Clark,
It was only at under 0.5% prevalence (compared to “Kent” variant) as of 2 weeks ago and there could be sequencing bias as well so probaly less than that in community. It will still be many weeks before it really starts to make a major bump in the UK overall figures. Peak still probably months away at current rate.
Unless it really does take off like a rocket.
Just as a ballpark estimate based on latest sampling and ONS infection survey, and if it does represent community spread, it is likely that maybe say 1000 people in the UK may be currently infectious with B.1.617. It still has a long, long way to go.
And also it isn’t going up by anything like 2.7 times per week and It was presumably here before first random sample spotted it. Statisticians seem to think a doubling time of 10-11 days might be a ballpark guess (but that was during lockdown). In any case there is not enough data yet to have high levels of confidence in anything especially as not a word has been said about exactly where these samples were taken.
The numbers over the next few weeks should make things much clearer and don’t forget the South African variant may be making gains as well.
“ Seriously though, religious idiocy has probably got more to do with the huge and sudden spread than anything else, just as they have in Amerika.”
I suspect ‘religion’ is interpretive like today’s Royal funeral and the masses being worshipful in praise for a truly ‘purposeful’ life.
There was a good report on B.1.617 last night on BBC Radio 4 PM
Can be played at https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000v3ql
It is the headline item but main discussion of India and B.1.617 starts about 7 mins in. Professor Danny Altmann of Imperial College London interview at about 12 mins in.
I highly recommend listening.
One bit of mixed news is that the relationships of the sequences submitted so far may be suggestive of multiple ongoing introductions but the data still too sparse. So some (much?) of the growth may be due to increasing numbers of B.1.617 positives coming in through Airports. Not that that’s a good thing either mind you.
I have seen some suggestions from India that some PCR tests may be more likely to give false negatives with B.1.617 but haven’t seen anything concrete to support that. If it is the case though it would certainly make it easier for people to get into the UK with it and not be detected.
– “some (much?) of the growth may be due to increasing numbers of B.1.617 positives coming in through Airports”
Well that would help make sense of the numbers, ‘cos 2.7^5 = ~143
– “some PCR tests may be more likely to give false negatives with B.1.617”
That would make them more difficult to reconcile.
Any idea what proportion of infections (all variants) are getting detected at present? If B.1.617 is only 0.5% of all variants as you say, that implies about 20,000 infections. If some 2600 infections are being detected per day, and infection lasts a week or two, it looks as though most infections are getting detected.
In the week ending 10th April ONS estimated that about 130,000 people across the UK would have tested positive for SARS-Cov-2 based on their infection survey. Data at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/16april2021
So the daily positive tests number is still only a fraction of the real number. Most people still don’t get tested and some won’t even have known they had it.
Report from Mumbai
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3En5wg7YHY
Latest India
India not currently on travel into UK red list (so far) because Boris needs to suck Indian cock for trade/arms deals thanks to his Brexit disaster.
The irony of the former colonial power coming back with a begging bowl is not lost on Indians.
Squonk, – “So the daily positive tests number is still only a fraction of the real number”
Thanks.
What an appalling mess.
I see that the global figures are just breaking their January record, and are rising 40% faster than at that time.
According to the BBC
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56791144
They stick with the 77 figure even though the actual number is up to about 160 now in the latest database (some could be the same subject though).
Is it really the case that most had no symptoms or did they fake their pre-flight tests (print your own out) and lie about no symptoms on entry?
Anyway either the unnamed expert the BBC spoke to is either clueless themselves, if they still think the number is 77, or the BBC intentionally stuck with a completely wrong number.
Edit: In another item the BBC say they spoke to Susan Hopkins
Well I suppose 160 is definitely “more than 70”.
And why is it “too soon” other than “Boris says no”. What’s the plan here? Get in as much as possible as fast as possible and then say it is too late to use the “red list”?
India has labelled B.1.617 as a Variant of Concern internally. Looks like Boris is insisting we can’t even act as a precaution until we’ve flooded the country with it so we can then be concerned as well.
Here’s how you provide evidence of your negative test taken prior to travel
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-for-people-travelling-to-england
Can’t see anyway of faking that… Or just not bother and simply pay 500 quid to get in without one.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/oxygen-has-become-an-emergency-delhi-needs-more-normal-supply-arvind-kejriwal-101618754237846.html
And a response of a kind.
“ MOSCOW (AP) — A doctor for imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who is in the third week of a hunger strike, says his health is deteriorating rapidly and the 44-year-old Kremlin critic could be on the verge of death.
Physician Yaroslav Ashikhmin said Saturday that test results he received from Navalny’s family show him with sharply elevated levels of potassium, which can bring on cardiac arrest, and heightened creatinine levels that indicate impaired kidneys.
“Our patient could die at any moment,” he said in a Facebook post.
Anastasia Vasilyeva, head of the Navalny-backed Alliance of Doctors union, said on Twitter that “action must be taken immediately.”
He’s no saint but ‘killer’ Putin is wurst
The B.1.1.7 variant has mutations that allow it to bind more” to cells, said Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a CNN medical analyst and professor of medicine and surgery at George Washington University.”
Think of this mutation as making the virus stickier.”
Coronavirus latches onto cells with its spike proteins — the spikes surrounding the surface of the virus.”There is a little difference in the way the (B.1.1.7) spike protein holds that makes it stick to your cells a little more easily,” said emergency physician Dr. Megan Ranney, director of the Brown-Lifespan Center for Digital Health.
With the original strain of the novel coronavirus, “you need a certain inoculum — a certain amount of virus — in order for the infection to basically stick,” Reiner said.”Is one viral particle enough to make you sick? No, probably not. On the other hand … sometimes a massive inoculum can kill an otherwise healthy person. And we’ve seen that in health care workers,” he said.”
So these new variants, particularly the UK variant, seem to be stickier. So the notion is that it’s more contagious, so to speak, because potentially you don’t need as much of an inoculum to get sick.”
What this means in real life: “You can be in a place and maybe have a briefer exposure or have a smaller exposure — more casual exposure — and then get infected,” Reiner said.And because B.1.1.7 is stickier, “you may indeed have a higher viral load.”
“If you have a higher number of viral particles in your respiratory tract, then it’s going to be easier to spread it to other people,” Ranney said.
That’s another reason why it’s so important for young adults to get vaccinated.B.1.1.7 cases have now been reported in all 50 states, the CDC said.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/12/health/b117-covid-variant-young-patients/index.html
https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/#public
Watch the first flight attempt of the Mars helicopter Ingenuity – live now
Wow! First powered flight on another planet.
Thanks Glenn.
What was it, a 30 second flight?
How much did it cost per second?
Really. NASA has been mud bound since 1971