1,587 thoughts on “General Discussion – 2”

  2. Russian tv reacts to above video showing free speech is not yet totally dead.

  5. Only November 22nd and we had the first insufficient system generation margin of the year for this evening. Later cancelled due to sufficient imports being made available. Mainly we got it from France and France got it from Germany.

    2022-11-22 14:44
    Electricity Capacity Market Notice Currently Active Posted by National Grid Electricity System Operator at 14:45 on 22/11/2022 Commencement time of notice : 19:00 on 22/11/2022 Circumstances that triggered notice : De-Rated margin shortfall Transmission Demand and Operating Margin (MW) : 40102 Aggregate Capacity of BM Units expected (MW) : 40279 Additional Capacity (MW) : . . Capacity Market participants are advised to review the System Warnings page on BMRS for potential operational warnings from the Electricity System Operator. This notice is published pursuant to Rule 8.4.6 / 11.3.5 of the Capacity Market Rules Participants are also advised to pay close attention to De-rated Margin (DRM) information on the BMRS website that will be updated 3 times (4-hour, 2 hour and 1 hour ahead) in advance of the commencement time of this Capacity Market Notice. For further information, please contact [email protected] and see the FAQ at https://gbcmn.nationalgrideso.com/faq

  15. We’ve been quite lucky with weather so far but sign of possible extended cold period in mid range models. This from GFS Parallel (goes live on Nov 29)

    Snow cover Monday 12th December

    At that range it is not likely to be accurate but it is possible

  16. From: Power System Manager – National Grid Electricity Control Centre NATIONAL GRID NOTIFICATION – DEMAND FLEXIBILTY SERVICE. An Anticipated DFS Requirement Notice has been published for tomorrow Tuesday 29/11/2022 This is an indication that a DFS Service Requirement might be published today at 14:30. This will be Energy Tagged. For full details see the ESO Data Portal at https://data.nationalgrideso.com/data-groups/dfs. Notification Issued at 10:00 hours on 28/11/2022. Issued by Natasa Dinic National Grid Electricity National Control Centre.

    So at 7pm tomorrow England play Wales in the World Cup and National Grid currently predicting they won’t be able to meet demand at that time unless that demand is reduced.

  17. If I read the gobbledegook below correctly that’s an insufficient margin notice for 6pm tonight (Monday) as well.

    2022-11-28 14:04 * CMN_202211281404_00000002.bmr * * Capacity Market warning Data * *File_NAME,CMW_SYS_ID,CMW_BUS_ID,CMW_CREATION_DATETIME,CMW_COMMENCEMENT_DATETIME,CMW_END_DATETIME,CMW_EXPIRATION_DATETIME,CMW_EXPIRATION_MODE,CMW_REASON_FOR_EXPIRATION,CMW_CIRCUMSTANCE,SYSTEM_MARGIN,ADDITIONAL_CAPACITY,DEMAND_VALUE,AGGREGATION_CAPACITY,DCI_EVENT_NO,DCI_START_DATE_TIME,DCI_REASON,RECORD_CREATE_DATETIME,RECORD_UPDATE_DATETIME,USER_CREATED_BY,USER_UPDATED_BY CMN_202211281404_00000002.bmr,40074,CMN20221128133356,2022-11-28 13:33:56,2022-11-28 18:00:00,2022-11-28 14:04:49,2022-11-28 18:00:00,Auto,,ISM,446.287,,38338.22,38784.507,,,,2022-11-28 13:33:56,2022-11-28 14:04:49,SYSTEM,ETRMODISPRDAPPUSER

  18. LOLP (Loss of Load Probability) alert
    Margin warning for 28/11/2022 18:00. LOLP: 28.999999999999996 %. Derated margin: 62.83 MW

    2.5GW just started to come in from France for peak UK demand

    France is also importing 7GW from Germany.

  19. Breakdown of peak imports which kept lights on in the UK tonight.

  20. So now the England-Wales match is out of the way, people will be paid to sit in the dark tonight and tomorrow. A “test” for now…

    2022-11-29 16:29 From: Power System Manager – National Grid Electricity Control Centre NATIONAL GRID NOTIFICATION – DEMAND FLEXIBILTY SERVICE. DFS Tests have been instructed for tomorrow Wednesday 30/11/2022 between 17:30 and 18:30. Times in GMT The maximum demand reduction volume during this period is 158 MW. This will be System Tagged. For full details see the ESO Data Portal at https://data.nationalgrideso.com/data-groups/dfs. Notification Issued at 16:30 hours on 29/11/2022. Issued by Simon Williams National Grid Electricity National Control Centre.

    2022-11-30 14:29 From: Power System Manager – National Grid Electricity Control Centre NATIONAL GRID NOTIFICATION – DEMAND FLEXIBILTY SERVICE. DFS Tests have been initiated for tomorrow Thursday 01/12/2022 between 17:00 and 18:00. Times in GMT The maximum demand reduction volume during this period is expected to be 250 MW. This will be System Tagged. For full details see the ESO Data Portal at https://data.nationalgrideso.com/data-groups/dfs. Notification Issued at 14:30 hours on 30/11/2022. Issued by Natasa Dinic National Grid Electricity National Control Centre.

  23. Another insufficient generation safety margin notice for Thursday

    07 Dec 2022, 12:11 pm

    LOLP (Loss Of Load Probability) alert
    Margin warning for 8/12/2022 17:00. LOLP: 64 %. Derated margin: -281.72 MW

  25. As Rye House is 700MW that’s 4.2 million quid per hour.

  26. Just as well there’s a warm up coming

    UK Medium Range Storage for gas projected to reach zero about Christmas Day at current drain rates. Just as for electricity we depend again on real time imports from Europe to keep our gas on when it gets cold.

  27. Where’s the cold gone?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64061588

    US winter storm will bring coldest Christmas in decades

    A major winter storm sweeping the US this week may bring the coldest Christmas in four decades to parts of the country, say forecasters.

    The “once-in-a-generation” cold snap – which began in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday, before churning east – will become a “bomb cyclone” by Friday.

    More than 90 million people are under winter weather alerts across 37 states.

    About 80% of the nation is set to experience sub-zero temperatures, including places as far south as Texas.

    Named Winter Storm Elliot by the Weather Channel, the arctic blast is expected to deliver the coldest Christmas to the Midwest since the late 1980s, according to forecasts cited by US media.

  32. Deaths registered in England and Wales 1838-2021

    Note the big spikes from Spanish Flu, covid and Hitler but hard to even spot the Hong Kong Flu in the noise. The spike for winter 63 is even more obvious. So the Hong Kong Flu can’t really be compared to covid in terms of UK mortality impact.

    Peak deaths in 2020 would have been a lot higher without measures and would have towered over even the 1918 spike (just add 2021 excess deaths to 2020 for a start). Could we have avoided lockdown? Of course we could but at a cost.

    And globally https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

  33. And the world has become a much more dangerous place post-covid. It’s almost as if something has dropped the global IQ and increased executive dysfunction.

    Next stop. Nuclear Armageddon? Oh well at least it will make the covid death spike look like nothing.

  34. US Excess Deaths

  35. Discussion on excess deaths, with special guest Stuart McDonald. Prof Christina Pagel & Dr Duncan Robertson will be hosting the session, Prof Anthony Costello chairing & Dr Duncan Robertson also on numbers.

  37. Some AI generated images I just “painted” 🙂

    Self portrait by Leonardo as he works on apparently the early version of the Mona Lisa.

    A fictional album cover for the band “The Comet is Coming”, album “Hyper-Dimensional Expansion Beam” (as recommended by Clark!)

    And a few takes on aliens visiting a festival at night!

    An African sunset.

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